Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida is working for a law that would make it much harder for citizens to get ballot initiatives passed in the Sunshine State. In theory, this might make the Seminole tribe's hold on the state's gambling market even stronger, which would be bad for Donald Trump's business.

Florida magnet with dolphin DeSantis asked lawmakers to hold a special session starting today (January 27) to talk about a lot of things. Most of these are very similar to Trump's plans, like harsher immigration laws, voting rights, and law enforcement.

But DeSantis' planned modifications to citizen-led ballot initiatives could hurt his relationship with Trump while helping the Seminole tribe. The two men have a difficult relationship that goes up and down.

The GOP-led legislature in the state made a shocking decision on Monday: they didn't even talk about the bill and turned down the special session. But the topic will come up again when the regular session starts in March.

The bill, which doesn't have a name yet, would make it much harder for petitioners to get the support they need by making it illegal for third parties to collect signatures. Right now, people can only get a statewide referendum by getting 8% of the voting population to sign a petition (around 900,000 signatures).

Companies that collect signatures sometimes put up tables in front of department stores, on college campuses, or near important events and ask people to sign petitions. Under the new rules, each voter would have to ask for, fill out, and send back their own petition forms. Getting more than two signatures besides your own would be a crime.

A strong tribal presence in Florida
The bill might have huge effects on people who work in the casino industry. This is because any increase of gambling in Florida needs to get the consent of voters through a citizen-led constitutional amendment. Also, the approval rate has to be at least 60%, which is a high bar in and of itself. This, along with a ban on gathering signatures, would make it seem almost difficult to expand gambling or deal with other problems.

That's wonderful news for the Seminoles, who run the only retail casinos in the state and have a monopoly on internet sports betting. In 2021, the tribe negotiated a new deal with DeSantis that lets them keep their monopoly in exchange for $2.5 billion in payments to the state over the first five years of the deal.

The Seminoles were able to keep their controversial hub-and-spoke business model, which is also the basis for online casinos, despite legal objections. The tribe is still focussing on land-based venues for now. The newest retail casino, Seminole Brighton Bay, will open on February 6.

Daniel Wallach, a gaming lawyer, told CNN that the initiative plan "would seal off competition for sports betting and casino gambling" in the state. He also said that this kind of thing would be "unprecedented" for a market as vast as Florida.

Trump: "I would have gotten it if I wanted it."
The proposal's passage could affect Trump in an indirect way, since he has looked into developing casinos in the area. In a 2015 Republican debate, Jeb Bush, who used to be governor of Florida, said that Trump tried to buy his way into a gaming licence in the 1990s.

Trump said, "That's not true at all." "I promise that if I wanted it, I would have gotten it."

The 45th and now 47th president used to run casinos in Atlantic City through his company, Trump Entertainment Resorts. But his time in the business was full of scandals and bankruptcies. The question now is if he wants to get back in the game, as his answer to Bush suggests. The incoming president met with casino owners in Las Vegas over the weekend.

https://twitter.com/MattRybaltowski/status/1883892404673216526
Eric Trump told the Washington Post that his father's golf course in Doral was "unmatched from a gaming perspective." The Seminoles' Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Hollywood is just over 15 miles away. The 2021 compact says that any commercial casinos in the state must be at least 15 miles away from the nearest Indian Country casino in a straight line. Doral is outside of the zone, so the Seminoles couldn't fight to keep a casino facility there.

Wallach told CNN that making it illegal to obtain signatures would make things very hard. But after a successful re-election, Trump is "one of the few people who might be able to get that kind of signature support."